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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1385

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 2 18:06:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021806=20
    MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-022000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...parts of far southern PA...central MD...central
    VA...and northern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 021806Z - 022000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a few
    instances of severe hail are possible this afternoon across parts of
    far southern Pennsylvania, central Maryland, central Virginia, and
    northern North Carolina. A watch is possible in the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon near an MCV
    centered over southern West Virginia. Per mesoanalysis and
    short-term RAP forecasts, these storms are in an environment
    characterized by modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). The
    deep-layer shear is also relatively weak (25-35 kts effective bulk
    shear), but this may be enough for some multicell and transient
    supercell structures, particularly with northward extent, where the
    deep-layer shear is a bit stronger. Additionally, modestly steep
    low-level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) and some clustering may allow for
    some downbursts with wind damage. Additionally, a few instances of
    large hail are possible given the deep CAPE profile. With time,
    storms are expected to cluster together and move off to the east
    before moving offshore later this afternoon.

    ..Supinie/Grams.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7nSWa49AwZ0yEySa3XR16TqZOXKDO1CtJ5V4E2Wan3BK38_uN7Op0PYydXsT7BqAS74LhRmW2= 5XjAmYs1yeY0voxGjE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35687975 35488047 35658118 35988126 36318110 36708066
    36928054 37208029 37577989 38237920 39297804 39977718
    40067695 40017633 39667619 38657645 37947680 36777775
    36417814 36207851 36017900 35687975=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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