ACUS11 KWNS 021657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021656=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeast MO...southern
IL...southern/central IN...southwest OH...western/central KY and
northern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 021656Z - 021900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to increase over
the next couple of hours. Damaging gusts and hail will be possible
with this activity into early evening. One or more severe
thunderstorm watches will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies from the MS/OH River confluence
through much of the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity has allow
temperatures to warm into the 80s to near 90 F. This has mostly
eroded surface-based inhibition early at midday, and some growth
within the broad cumulus field is occurring. Surface dewpoints in
the 70s amid modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE
values around 1000-2500 J/kg, with some additional destabilization
expected with continued heating. The region will remain within a
broad area of 35-45 kt midlevel west/southwesterly flow ahead of a
modest shortwave trough now ejecting across MO/IL. Organized
bands/clusters of storms are expected to increase through early
afternoon and spread east/northeast into early evening. Steep
low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, and PW values
near 1.75 inches will support scattered strong/damaging gusts.
Additionally, modest midlevel lapse rates and elongated forecast
hodographs amid 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes suggests
isolated large hail also will be possible. One or more severe
thunderstorm watches will likely be need for the region by 19z.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56KAGlDz5RCQsDogtiVomJayXfj-PRsoDJzi8dnM72LTBJGf-_YtzEoc1KsEC81ZmoNMhfiSm= y8Ig8wmGcH6Aicpg6A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...

LAT...LON 38708756 39708610 39908527 39908468 39718429 39498406
38908379 38008376 37168393 36658416 36428446 36208505
35788765 35868873 36148975 36459005 36688988 38708756=20


=3D =3D =3D
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