ACUS11 KWNS 011754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011754=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...central PA into portions of Upstate NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011754Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce locally strong gusts
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to gradually increase
in intensity and coverage through the afternoon as convection
develops within broad large-scale ascent downstream from a Canadian
midlevel trough. Vertical shear remains weak over the region, but is
forecast to gradually increase, with effective shear magnitudes
around 25 kt by late afternoon. A moist boundary-layer with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F is contributing to modest destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg) across the region. This parameter
space should support briefly organized cells/clusters and sporadic
strong gusts will be possible as convection spreads east/northeast
through the afternoon/early evening. The overall severe thunderstorm
risk is expected to remain modest, and a severe thunderstorm watch
is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!86C_CjI9QGCIUf2xwTbxatCOGzpLX3dgG-vAghwDUL3yGN7lkX-hCHTcCAmlmDpGMFMjXmhnw= _5DyZrmU01nXaSAFIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 43777337 41227611 40127707 39767803 39797876 39997931
40567963 41037978 41617965 42457826 42707784 43657686
44617604 45237465 45067320 43777337=20


=3D =3D =3D
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