ACUS11 KWNS 011737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011737=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...northern/central Virginia into portions of Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011737Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusts
and hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface
trough near the higher terrain of west-central VA. Low to mid 70s
surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid
modest midlevel lapse rates. Continued heating will result in
steepening low-level lapse rates the next few hours. Vertical shear
is expected to remain weak, at or below 20 kt 0-6 km effective bulk
shear. This will limit longevity/organization of strong updrafts.
Nevertheless, high PW values and boundary-layer mixing to around 1
km could support sporadic downbursts. While midlevel lapse rates and
3-6 km flow will remain weak, large instability from 700-300 mb and
somewhat elongated hodographs could support a few instances of
near-1 inch hail. The overall threat is expected to remain marginal,
and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-VAdNOTwjJOQ6KZq3XD-7F3hfR93OlK5_UUngxOYK8lfDgyXgTZdRM_WMNSL75TfuhzyzNd7= SwlQw-m237wHkSlkEs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38217931 39267845 39577750 39427670 38947621 38407624
37787653 37467709 37307776 37167879 37377929 37817942
38217931=20


=3D =3D =3D
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