1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1370

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 1 16:47:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 011646
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011646=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1370
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011646Z - 011815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce strong/locally damaging
    gusts and hail through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters have developed across the region
    early this afternoon amid weakening boundary-layer inhibition.
    Surface dewpoints in the 70s amid mid 80s to low 90s temperatures
    are resulting in a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional
    heating during the afternoon will result in some additional increase
    in instability. While moderate to strong instability will reside
    over the region, vertical shear is expected to remain modest, with
    effective shear magnitudes generally around 20 kt forecast. This
    will limit longevity of organized updrafts, though degree of
    instability should support at least briefly vigorous thunderstorms.
    The lack of stronger midlevel flow and deep-layer shear may preclude
    upscale development, but the parameter space should be sufficient
    for thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for strong/locally damaging
    gusts and perhaps hail with the stronger cores. If a sufficient cold
    pool can be generated, potential for a bowing cluster would
    increase, but confidence in this scenario is low. A severe
    thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RRBQi62kAAk_LWbctkO27hwExM7zzXraBo13JngzB_TTA1NKDtEDR3rERr9-HGIwxGeSHARb= psAucXYGp4ARfGirNc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36598473 34578555 34428644 34518771 34798813 35478825
    36398818 36648792 36668602 36598473=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)