ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343=20
KYZ000-INZ000-011515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...southern IN into north-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011343Z - 011515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and small hail may accompany storms
storms shifting east this morning. A severe thunderstorms watch is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is shifting east this morning
across southern IN along the apex of stronger instability nosing
into central KY. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F and midlevel
lapse rates around 7 C/km are contributing to MUCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg. However, quite a bit of boundary-layer inhibition is
still in place given time of day, and low-level lapse rates remain
weak as only modest surface heating has occurred so far. Ahead of
the line of storms, clusters of showers and thunderstorms are
developing across central KY. This downstream activity and overall
poor boundary-layer conditions, severe potential is expected to
remain limited over the next couple of hours. Locally strong gusts
to 45 mph and small hail will be possible, but a severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Wog6NQ6xQXt41FEHHxFZ_6-1P2h5_45f-G0it1lTkvuNLBj8biXdetYWtQLrODirenWxAYRc= vXyLtqzzwEB09BD0Ro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38928682 38718725 38378737 38138741 37928711 37838632
37838577 37968560 38138547 38258543 38468549 38618556
38768581 38918613 38928682=20


=3D =3D =3D
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