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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1367

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 1 05:58:54 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 010558
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010558=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-010830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1367
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southern IN into
    northern/central KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 010558Z - 010830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds may
    persist for a few more hours early this morning. The need for a
    watch remains uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A few multicells and marginal supercells have recently strengthened across parts of southern IN and far northern KY. These thunderstorms are probably being aided by ascent associated with a
    30-40 kt mid-level speed max advancing eastward across the OH
    Valley, and a 20-30 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. A narrow
    corridor of rich low-level moisture and uncontaminated warm sector
    is present along/south of this ongoing convection. Around 1500-2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE will probably support continued thunderstorm
    intensity for at least a few more hours this morning, even with some boundary-layer convective inhibition present. Deep-layer shear
    appears marginal (generally 25-35 kt) for organized convection. But,
    given the modest organization of the ongoing activity, it should be
    enough to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. An isolated
    threat for severe hail should exist with the more discrete
    convection given the presence of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates.
    Occasional damaging winds may also occur with any small clusters
    that can be sustained as they spread generally east-southeastward.
    The need for a watch remains uncertain given the fairly isolated
    nature of the severe risk, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mKiJLhnAodwXiUC0ebwHuHAd7aXQJyh80BzwLSOXOn_IlvUaCqmOFWC8eeTdMY2nz0bz_aLS= HefXo77wCmNk6CVNI4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 39868592 39018478 38328380 37558417 37428495 37448594
    37658690 38128777 38628730 39718695 39868592=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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