ACUS11 KWNS 302238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302237=20
KSZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 302237Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase across parts of southwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening, and a watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway across parts
of southwestern Kansas this afternoon -- where some increase in
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
Rockies is overspreading a moist/unstable air mass. While low-level
flow is quite weak, a belt of strengthening midlevel southwesterlies
will contribute to 40-50 kt of effective shear. This wind profile,
coupled with moderate surface-based instability, will support a few semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts. With time, an additional cluster of severe storms
will approach the area from southeastern CO, posing a risk of severe
winds as well. Current thinking is that a watch will be needed to
cover both rounds of convection this afternoon/evening.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Cb4XAsN4_eX33vuQeLupkN4Mk6o4HEBpvPcKCA2ssemnSa8203m1X19HoNkyRxOFvDcGYGZL= 5qzduI5Z0_SjY48P6U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37060050 37030141 37080189 37330198 37800200 38090187
38360139 38710067 39000014 39059963 38969924 38569913
37999909 37519917 37269962 37060050=20


=3D =3D =3D
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