ACUS11 KWNS 302127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302127=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas/Northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302127Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential should steadily increase
through late afternoon across east-central/northeast Kansas into
northern Missouri. A Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows
deepening/towering cu in vicinity of the roughly WSW/ENE-oriented
boundary across central/northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Hot temperatures and prevalent low/some middle 70s F surface dewpoints
are contributing to minimal inhibition with MLCAPE estimated as high
as 3000-4000 J/kg as per latest mesoanalysis and modifications to
the 19z KTOP observed sounding. Moderately strong
west-southwesterlies mid/high-level flow overlies the frontal zone,
and as such, wind profiles will support some initial supercells
capable of large hail. The potential for damaging winds are likely
to increase this evening as cell mergers occur.

..Guyer/Hart.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bLFc-FfeYTCfLwqqH6HyfvvAsJZP36zdTf4apnrE8giPUtzq-GVsZZWRH3nSU2kBXaozxKlF= Np2NcjbXoYoukHQJ6M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39339772 39839565 39829287 39149195 38469227 38679417
38659593 38219715 38149802 39339772=20


=3D =3D =3D
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