ACUS11 KWNS 301928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301928=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301928Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing and gradually intensifying thunderstorm
development through 4-6 PM CDT may pose some risk for severe hail
and wind. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
shifting into/across the southern Rockies, an influx of moisture
from the subtropical latitudes is contributing to conditionally
unstable thermodynamic profiles above a remnant elevated mixed-layer
across southern/eastern New Mexico into Western Texas. At the same
time, an area of mid/upper forcing for ascent continues to shift north-northeastward across this region, near the entrance region of
the strong high-level jet nosing northeast of the southern Rockies
through the central high plains.

Beneath this regime, a moist and deepening mixed boundary-layer is
becoming characterized by moderately large CAPE around 1500 J/kg,
with mid-level inhibition weakening sufficiently to allow for the
initiation of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development. This
is occurring along weak lee surface troughing, which models suggest
will become the focus for increasing thunderstorm development
through 21-23Z. Embedded within rather modest (20-25 kt)
south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow and shear, the environment
does not appear particularly conducive to well-organized severe
storm development. However, aided by steep lapse rates, initial
strengthening storms may pose a risk for severe hail and locally
strong downbursts, with weaker surface gusts then becoming more
widespread on consolidating northeastward and eastward advancing
outflows.

..Kerr/Grams.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!935AhjXLmpS9LPCGaqGV6Wgqrx8dBwuA4ujneTsRz0G9KWX5dhwad8FsQAW2HSKKSjNlTKBAM= WM7gD0gQQA_T7tKBcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34290339 35460195 34560121 32820238 32650362 34290339=20


=3D =3D =3D
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