ACUS11 KWNS 301813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301812=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...portions of western GA into eastern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301812Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts and small hail will be possible this
afternoon with a southward propagating thunderstorm cluster across
parts of western Georgia into eastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has gradually increased in
coverage and intensity early this afternoon. Strong heating has
allowed low-level inhibition to erode, and dewpoints in the low 70s
are supporting around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While moderate
mid/upper northerly flow persists toward central GA/AL, overall bulk
effective shear values decrease rapidly with southward extent.
However, steep low-level lapse rates amid moderate buoyancy may aid
in sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts as the storm cluster moves
southward through the afternoon along the instability gradient.
Given generally weak low-level flow and modest effective shear,
overall organization of the cluster is not expected to increase
beyond current trends. A more organized/widespread severe threat is
expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not
currently expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8o24BXVCd9LOSTTbuLUg_OUq-6OqXoRgr29Sm-bW8B1sw47a6eovYxhc4SLmQ4PFb5JHmHEE1= uWpNwsBrYKTqOigYQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 34158412 33538413 33098436 32858462 32808506 32948550
33298601 33658609 34188582 34278553 34158412=20


=3D =3D =3D
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