ACUS11 KWNS 301225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301224=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern IA...northern MO...and far
west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301224Z - 301400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm cluster may pose some threat for
severe/damaging winds and hail this morning as it moves eastward.
The need for a watch remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms which have persisted across southern NE
earlier this morning have consolidated and recently strengthened
into a small bowing cluster along the MO/IA border. Two measured
severe wind gusts to 59 and 66 mph have been recorded in southern IA
with this convection. The airmass downstream is not particularly
unstable, as it lies to the north of a weak surface front and
convectively reinforced outflow boundary from prior convection.
Still, latest mesoanalysis suggests around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is present downstream across
northern MO, southern IA, and west-central IL. This may be
sufficient to maintain the current cluster's intensity for a few
more hours as it moves eastward along the MO/IA border. Occasional severe/damaging winds should remain the primary severe threat, but
some hail may also occur. Given the small size of the cluster and
potential for it to weaken as it eventually moves eastward into a
less unstable airmass across IL, the need for a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains uncertain. However, trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0ltWNBaCiZb3gYrvDwKYF9v_fi3vmW8AlqVNiC9GqYT-T4h4j3AuHs9N-HZwsX8Qe_BM_owV= 1-nc35eCQB-AnuZ4Gw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40289411 40669406 41079409 41309313 41299138 41229082
41079041 40589025 40129046 39989113 40069240 40289411=20


=3D =3D =3D
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