ACUS11 KWNS 300052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300052=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado

Concerning...Tornado Watch 419...

Valid 300052Z - 300215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 419 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail threat will persist with the more intense
storms over the next few hours before a gradual weakening occurs
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Large hail continues to be reported with ongoing
multicells and transient supercells across southeast WY into
northeastern CO. A recent uptick in convective coverage and
intensity has been noted in far southeast WY, where southward
sagging outflow has encouraged localized convergence for initiation.
However, much of this airmass is becoming overturned, and the severe
hail threat may only persist for a few more hours in an organized
fashion. The supercell in Arapahoe County, CO and surrounding
convection may persist longer into the evening with a severe
hail/wind threat given the presence of stronger buoyancy and
relatively less MLCINH out in the warm sector (per 00Z
mesoanalysis). Furthermore, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests 2+ inch
hail is falling from the Arapahoe county storm, and this general
area continues to have the best chance at seeing additional
significant-severe hail over the next couple of hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!877NzqA-2EKPpwBTK4CyrmCL4NIiRvj0Q39SaIVr7DO1iHXTqRb724ycg8Nr1iZ_lKe9vBMuF= mB_oi8iUDwRh2Kp9KY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39680441 40620531 41380573 41890601 42020583 41850438
41680381 41240345 40540310 40090301 39770310 39600391
39680441=20


=3D =3D =3D
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