ACUS11 KWNS 292349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292349=20
NEZ000-300115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292349Z - 300115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may be materializing east of Tornado
Watch 419 as an MCS is organizing in extreme western NE. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the next hour or so if the MCS
continues to intensify.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells across eastern WY have
recently aggregated into a loosely organized MCS across the NE
Panhandle. 7+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates precede this newly
developed MCS, and are overspreading surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s, yielding over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. The buoyancy
coincides with well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, derived
primarily from elongated, nearly straight hodographs (based on RAP
forecast soundings). While the aforementioned CAPE/deep-shear
parameter space would favor continued MCS organization and
intensification, low-level shear is relatively weak, raising
questions regarding how prolific the accompanying severe wind threat
will become. Nonetheless, severe gusts could become common enough to
warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, which may be needed in
the next few hours pending continued MCS intensification.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6SzozwsPJWVp0x2y8WeEbDmKCin0g-btMvyZErfer8MPX-eJuueqWNG3hWJ6MCXs3ATXqej85= qtP5PU24Z_VmnkLIJg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON 42950278 42920145 42620035 42059979 41539966 41310007
41160097 41150178 41180217 41270255 42950278=20


=3D =3D =3D
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