• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1344

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 29 22:16:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 292216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292215=20
    ALZ000-292345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1344
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

    Valid 292215Z - 292345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible with a
    southward-moving supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening.
    It is unclear if a small downstream watch will be needed, though
    trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a southward-advancing
    supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening, which is
    tracking along the eastern edge of a strongly unstable surface-based
    air mass. In the short-term, large hail (possibly to 2 inches in
    diameter) and damaging winds remain possible with this activity.
    Within the pre-convective environment, a moist and well-mixed
    boundary layer (evident via surface obs and HCRs in visible
    satellite imagery) could support the maintenance of this supercell
    cluster with southward extent, before the onset of increasing
    nocturnal static stability. Modest deep-layer flow/shear limits
    confidence in how long lived convection will be this evening, or how
    large of an area will be affected. Trends are being monitored for a
    new watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_f3gozzMRMZdtH6jooOw8C14cGy2gVnw54WskLorINBgmaJKWs3O3SV2zg2_417v--8xZdrUa= mTr8IQUZHt5nKIFROc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 34068790 34438786 34668772 34738753 34728705 34588678
    34368665 33928662 33548690 33558740 33718774 34068790=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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