ACUS11 KWNS 292212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292212=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-292345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into northeast
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 419...

Valid 292212Z - 292345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 419 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 419. Very
large hail remains a concerns and an isolated tornado is still
possible over the next few hours. Storms may eventually congeal into
one or more MCSs with a severe wind threat later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and supercells continue
to progress eastward across eastern WY and the Denver Metropolitan
area, with a history of severe hail. MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows
these storms continuing to build in intensity, with 50 dBZ echoes
approaching 40 kft with some of the supercell structures. 8+ C/km
surface-500 mb lapse rates atop mid 50s F surface dewpoints are
contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms, where
RAP forecast soundings also show elongated hodographs and 50+ kts of
effective bulk shear. As such, the stronger multicells and
supercells should continue to pose a large hail threat, with 2+ inch
diameter stones possible with the stronger, longer-lived supercells.
Low-level shear is relatively weak across the central High Plains,
with ongoing supercells showing outflow tendencies. However, a
tornado or two still cannot be ruled out, especially over southeast
Wyoming. Here, enhanced upslope flow and relatively higher 0-3 km
CAPE may enhance tilting/stretching potential if a storm can become inflow-dominant.

Nonetheless, storm outflows should support multicellular mergers
later this evening, especially in/near the Nebraska Panhandle.
Should this occur, severe gusts could become more prevalent.

..Squitieri.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_R7TorHU6F5NdUhfICh_hVh3Y5c_cVhcuAKMDtkQGpvCy25NkLDMP9EA95O9i5GFYclvftYdy= ziMDaSdXRncgLQs8Cs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39390516 41390531 42590483 42940415 42860320 41980284
40920270 39990270 39330329 39160420 39390516=20


=3D =3D =3D
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