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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1342

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 29 20:03:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 292003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292003=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1342
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...far northeast NM...southeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292003Z - 292200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large hail (diameter 1 to 1.75
    inches) and severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger
    storms this afternoon. It is uncertain whether the isolated
    coverage of severe storms will necessitate a severe thunderstorm
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar imagery composite shows two
    small thunderstorm clusters near I-25 straddling the NM/CO border.=20
    Surface conditions to the northeast and downstream of these storms
    is relatively moist with mid 50s to 60 deg F dewpoints.=20
    Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s and steep 0-3 km lapse
    rates are in place ahead of the ongoing convection. It seems
    plausible the risk for severe gusts may increase through this
    afternoon as additional storms develop and some of the outflows
    congeal. Isolated large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts
    due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates, but the risk for severe
    gusts may become the primary hazard towards late afternoon/early
    evening coincident with storms moving into a slightly more
    moisture-rich airmass and evaporative potential increases.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4vB34Ed8k9Vjr8qI2YifeRcJrTg916bj0hBcZprZDqxu7sRgtVZIoskc8g857H-hudoqqTJbO= 2M_Wt_7VYBCvhCUK18$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38030187 36210378 36100437 36220485 36500513 36890506
    37600466 38700361 38890296 38890254 38740208 38530189
    38030187=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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