ACUS11 KWNS 291741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291741=20
INZ000-ILZ000-291945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 291741Z - 291945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...It is possible that an initially well-organized convective
system may undergo substantive weakening within the next hour or
two, but potential for strong to severe surface gusts could continue
across and east of the Illinois/Indiana state border. A new severe
weather watch may be needed east of WW 415.

DISCUSSION...A well organized mesoscale convective system, with an
MCV and strong rear inflow evident in radar imagery, has generally
maintained considerable intensity across and east of the Mississippi
River, with gusts at a number of observing sites approaching or
exceeding 50 kts. Activity is propagating eastward at 50-55 kt and,
based on objective analysis, easterly near-surface inflow may
rapidly begin to become less unstable, at least near its current
apex which will progress across the remainder of east central
Illinois, toward the Indianapolis area, through 19-20Z.=20=20

It remains somewhat unclear how this will impact the subsequent
convective evolution. However, a corridor of stronger
destabilization through northeastern Illinois may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development northeast through north of the MCV, with
additional strong thunderstorm development possibly becoming focused
along an outflow boundary intersection across southern Illinois into
the lower Ohio Valley.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7EVkU8y1Z8jy_2IPzFfb7e93pdn0cP8vVW9tPTB3t2JFFa0n7xarMSK1qi3ZDWhVbJbj9Td2R= jSB9dUAexBU1YygV_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41348950 42348766 40988638 39268669 38608760 37738887
38758950 40478860 41348950=20


=3D =3D =3D
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