ACUS11 KWNS 291507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291506=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-291700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Missouri...southeastern Iowa...west
central into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 291506Z - 291700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms likely will maintain
intensity into early afternoon, overspreading much of west central
and central Illinois by 1 PM CDT. A new severe weather watch will
be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...The organizing convective system has developed strong
westerly descending rear inflow, with recent peak surface gusts of
58 and 56 kts at Lamoni IA and Kirskville MO, respectively. This
convection is embedded within 30 kt deep-layer westerly mean ambient
flow (around the northern periphery of the large-scale mid-level
ridging centered west of the lower Mississippi Valley), with 45+ kt
easterly storm motion allowing for moderately strong easterly
near-surface inflow.

This is contributing to sufficient lift above the outflow to
overcome substantial mid-level inhibition evident in forecast
soundings, with a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by
large potential instability likely to maintain intensity into and
across much of west central and central Illinois through 16-18Z.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kka87m9rPs2nx3mq1tjQECIUIDuxX8OKd7-nowztW9wZySWTzCNq4XY9Gig0oKlxsxcIiZrd= 4WbAClWoflmG7QwFaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 40969143 41018951 40668857 39708905 39328981 39499141
39579259 40259175 40969143=20


=3D =3D =3D
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