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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 29 09:07:33 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 290907
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290906=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-291030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0406 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

    Valid 290906Z - 291030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail (2+ inches) and 60-75 mph
    severe wind gusts will likely continue with a supercell/small
    cluster moving eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell along the NE/KS border has
    produced very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and significant severe/damaging winds across far southern NE over the past 1-2
    hours. The airmass downstream of this supercell will remain very
    favorable for continued convective organization/intensity, as strong
    MUCAPE overlaps enhanced deep-layer shear. A 50+ kt
    south-southwesterly low-level jet and related warm/moist advection
    feeding into this convection will also aid the maintenance of
    intense updrafts. Very large hail (2+ inches) will remain a concern
    in the short term with this supercell. Recent velocity data from
    KUEX also shows strong inbound velocities along the NE/KS border.
    Ample DCAPE and steep lapse rates aloft should allow for a continued
    threat of severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph as these
    thunderstorms spread eastward across south-central NE and
    north-central KS over the next couple of hours. Additional
    thunderstorms have developed farther east of this supercell in the
    strong low-level warm advection regime. This activity may also pose
    a threat for large hail if it strengthens further and acquires
    supercell characteristics.

    ..Gleason.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6sNCI-UxP3ozkJsBgzIv3LmlnfkNi9kK5bKruWKljuTNO34Isgp8xCx9kaBXVrYWAkXOnancE= ekV92OeL3cs5c4ZZvQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40359951 40519894 40529689 40339636 39959613 39599643
    39609794 39659915 39819957 40359951=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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