ACUS11 KWNS 290501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290501=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 290501Z - 290630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail may continue into the early
morning hours with ongoing supercells. There is some potential for
the severe-gust potential to increase with time.

DISCUSSION...A large and intense supercell is ongoing at 0445 UTC
across extreme northeast CO, with other more recent development
noted near/north of the trailing outflow into a larger part of
northeast CO. In the short term, moderate to strong buoyancy and
favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell
potential, with an attendant threat of very large hail. A short-term
tornado threat also cannot be ruled out with the lead supercell or
with any of the trailing supercells that can remain rooted near the
surface and not be undercut by outflow.=20

The lead supercell has shown an increase in forward speed over the
last hour, and there is some potential for this cell to evolve into
a forward-propagating cluster that could persist for much of the
night. The evolution remains uncertain, however, due to the likely
somewhat elevated nature of any overnight cluster, and the
potentially negative impact of very warm temperatures at the base of
the EML. If an organized cluster can persist and propagate eastward,
a swath of severe gusts (in addition to hail) will be possible
overnight, and downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed.

..Dean/Thompson.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Glc1fC7f0moX8cjeoK2htPQuH__QpQ_K_ujeTVwdeSeqbundX0UkaFsVoRoXTDMFUszBzQff= CrUthsHvBz6epndgVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40730440 40950188 40940173 40950051 40899968 40619917
40239894 39889906 39649957 39610062 39590137 39630273
39660344 39800410 40000435 40080495 40730440=20


=3D =3D =3D
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