ACUS11 KWNS 290436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290436=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-290630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN into western WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409...

Valid 290436Z - 290630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts may
persist into the early morning hours, though a general weakening
trend is expected with time.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity occurred
earlier this evening across parts of northwest WI, but storms have
struggled to attain severe intensity this far, likely due to a
tendency for convection to move eastward out of the instability axis
into a less unstable and increasingly capped environment.=20

A couple of earlier storms produced MRMS estimates of marginally
severe hail, and there is some potential for one or two ongoing
storms to intensify to that level into the early morning hours,
given moderate buoyancy and generally favorable deep-layer shear.
However, the factors mentioned above and a continued increase in
CINH with time will likely keep any severe threat isolated.=20

The greatest remaining relative threat is likely along the southern
part of WW 409 and areas to the southwest, from extreme southeast MN
into west-central WI. However, given current trends, the need for
watch extension or new watch issuance appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 06/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6DzJZGRWLY23Lm_3PJxLwUxoWONvGZUn1RtQ36hT0LVkcEseMkuySODI0zp3yEtgPdiskx6ox= IINNdd69AvF0XaA8y4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44379287 45069158 45779086 45869056 45659014 45169007
44709032 44419078 44279173 44379287=20


=3D =3D =3D
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