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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1321

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 28 23:16:57 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 282316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282316=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-290115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0616 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern WY...western SD...and the NE
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408...

    Valid 282316Z - 290115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms should continue to pose a risk for
    large to very large hail and damaging gusts tonight. A downstream
    watch and or local extensions may be needed later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW408, several mature storms, including a few
    supercell, are ongoing late this afternoon/evening. Several reports
    of severe hail have been received over the last couple of hours as
    storms have maintained themselves. This should continue with hi-res
    guidance and observational trends showing storms maintaining
    intensity and the subsequent severe risk into this evening. The
    environment across the central High Plains remains favorable for
    supercells with moderate MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear.
    Steep mid-level lapse rates and a discrete storm mode suggest large
    to very large hail and isolated damaging gusts are likely into this
    evening. A tornado or two may also be possible with the more
    discrete supercells, though low-level flow is generally weak. As
    storms approach the eastern edge of WW408 later this evening the
    severe risk may continue farther east. Local extensions or a new
    watch will need to be considered in the next couple of hours pending
    convective trends.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4-Amgy7npq0gnIbb0h7AHdzIrTfhcp-96Z8QZO8KAGWACvIyhYvqGEtea2d3caVXM3rwo8yY= r2j5O-e-S_IqsfDGf8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 44090213 43580123 42880105 42390110 41770112 41270140
    41020168 40690235 40690275 40750319 40860377 41150455
    42470518 43320541 43910500 44330462 44470442 44590289
    44550272 44090213=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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