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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1317

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 28 03:36:08 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 280336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280335=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-280500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central KS into
    north-central/northeastern OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

    Valid 280335Z - 280500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds should continue
    tonight. Downstream watch issuance will probably be needed into
    parts of northeastern OK.

    DISCUSSION...The small bowing complex along the KS/OK border has
    decreased in intensity over the past hour or so. The 00Z sounding
    from LMN (Lamont OK) shows very strong MLCIN and a dry layer from
    around 850 to 500 mb, which is likely hindering more robust
    updrafts. The southward extent of the severe risk into central OK
    should also be hindered by a substantial cap in the 850-700 mb layer
    noted on the 00Z OUN sounding. Still, the threat for severe/damaging
    winds up to 60-75 mph will probably continue with the ongoing
    cluster in north-central OK/south-central KS in the short term given
    sufficient instability and shear to maintain updraft intensity and organization. This activity should spread east-southeastward over
    the next few hours along a stalled surface front that extends into
    northeastern OK. Even with some MLCIN present, a threat for
    scattered damaging winds will probably continue into northeastern
    OK. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into this area will
    probably be needed.

    ..Gleason.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60ieLwE1mqZFxlG3-stdqCPub8w5CJsIMRG8aY9DJLwCkQXn3neISRfBLKbkeVRPNn4BMrUqv= GHw2dD7cqs31Z4AHp4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37009875 37339833 37409775 37189550 36419490 35949510
    35859579 35999682 36469849 37009875=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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