ACUS11 KWNS 272302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272302=20
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and southwestern
KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...

Valid 272302Z - 280030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should
increase this evening. A tornado also appears possible.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection that has spread from northeastern
NM into the northern TX/OK Panhandles is beginning to intersect
greater low-level moisture present to the east of a front. Current
expectations are for this activity to strengthen over the next few
hours as it encounters a moderately to strongly unstable airmass and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Supercells posing a threat for very
large hail appear possible in the short term (next couple of hours)
given the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates. Convection
should grow upscale into an intense but small bowing complex this
evening as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, with a
focused threat for significant severe/damaging winds, some of which
could be 75+ mph.

A narrow window for a tornado may also exist this evening across the central/eastern OK Panhandle into southwest KS and vicinity, where
LCLs are somewhat lower due to less daytime heating and
boundary-layer mixing due to cloud cover. Low-level shear and
hodograph curvature will increase through 01-02Z in tandem with the
low-level jet, and any supercell that can remain discrete could
produce a tornado across this area.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DMVcrqko78goCCCzODgaOY4cJjzFMoOOCqpEsi1LfIb65hd8C59NADrDpelLUo1TNKEp0C4j= VGlC9wSv9MweU2Ehos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35800266 36460297 36770282 37000198 37340155 37610095
37770041 37670007 36990005 36450027 36040140 35800266=20


=3D =3D =3D
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