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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1308

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 27 19:22:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271921=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1308
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...far southeast AR...northeast LA...central and
    southwest MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271921Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a localized severe risk.=20
    Damaging gusts are the primary hazard but severe hail is possible
    too.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
    field from southern AR southeastward into MS. A few thunderstorms
    have developed in the past hour across central and southwest MS
    within a weakly capped airmass. Very moist/warm conditions are
    indicated by surface observations early this afternoon with
    temperatures rising into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the
    mid-upper 70s. RAP forecast soundings show upwards of 4500 J/kg
    MLCAPE over central MS with weak west to northwesterly flow in the
    lowest 4 km beneath 50-kt west-northwesterly flow around 11 km (250
    mb). The buoyancy/kinematic combination will support some storm
    organization in the form of multicells. Localized 50-65 mph gusts
    and large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) are possible with the
    more intense storms. If a small cluster can develop, a perhaps more
    focused severe risk will be able to be discerned.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49zMWq6VrkNxgDciG2XLER2ZOFyMmvFqxP3bLo3BYowWC3fq8E3iL_01p0JHsNYe-BlzwKKTT= 7dFQuv5wiaM14Ihaqk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33299212 32889219 32559203 31139123 30999092 31069040
    31678932 31908919 32148915 33819023 33969065 33939116
    33299212=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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