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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1305

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 27 18:10:03 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271809=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1305
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...western Nebraska...adjacent northeastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 271809Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Rapidly intensifying scattered thunderstorm development
    appears possible as early as 2-4 PM MDT, with strongest storms
    becoming capable of producing very large hail and severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Modest low-level moistening on south-southeasterly
    near-surface flow into lee surface troughing is ongoing. This is
    contributing to increasing potential instability, beneath very steep
    mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of warm elevated
    mixed-layer air advecting east of the Front Range and Laramie
    Mountains vicinity. With continued insolation, mixed-layer CAPE is
    forecast to become maximized in a corridor across western Nebraska
    by 20-22Z, as forcing for ascent accompanying a short wave impulse
    progressing east of the higher terrain contributes to weakening
    inhibition.

    As southwesterly mid-level flow strengthens in excess of 50+ kt
    (around 500 mb), the environment appears likely to become conducive
    to scattered supercell development. Once storms initiate,
    intensification may be rapid with a few becoming capable of
    producing very large hail and severe wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mRiw3eG4Q0z0kAXz3PB77X4-9Fct1svuLFrCz5FbTT5ox4zhcJOq8W8SRWdJEYxzzQibswjx= UkC3ok1bLfUlt5PNAU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43600146 40770070 40160135 40550248 41210285 42190412
    43760342 43600146=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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