ACUS11 KWNS 271350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271350=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-271445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...east-central and eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 271350Z - 271445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe gusts are possible with a thunderstorm cluster as
it moves east-southeast along a buoyancy gradient this morning.

DISCUSSION...A recently intensified thunderstorm cluster over
central and north-central OK has produced severe gusts on the OK
Mesonet (79 mph at Perkins and 60 mph at Marena in Payne County).=20
Surface analysis shows mid 60s dewpoints near and immediately ahead
of the thunderstorms over east-central OK and drier low-level air
was located over northeast OK and northwest AR. The 12 UTC Norman,
OK raob showed 3500 J/kg MUCAPE with relatively weak low-level flow.
It seems the primary impetus for severe gusts is originating in
part due to the steep mid-level lapse rates (8.3 deg C/km in the
700-500 mb layer). Given the progression of the cluster, it seems
plausible a risk for severe gusts will continue for the next few
hours across east-central and eastern OK.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aQcIqaWk7EboAry9u6GKhi_1gvc7FUtZAAaD0qGri-SMktxbMl6rDUvk-ujLAA77bPUUKLhZ= -NORJL6gGcLnKEJm-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36119649 35779467 35409424 34989437 34749480 35279653
35689666 36119649=20


=3D =3D =3D
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