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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1294

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 27 01:29:54 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 270129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270129=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-270330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...central and eastern North Carolina and portions of
    northern and central South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...

    Valid 270129Z - 270330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms is ongoing across portions of
    central North Carolina, with the convection expected to
    continue/expand eastward/southeastward with time. A new WW is
    anticipated, to cover areas east and south WW 394 in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong/locally
    severe storms expanding/spreading eastward across the central North
    Carolina vicinity, where a moderately unstable remains in place
    (2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). Storms are being sustained by
    the available buoyancy, with organization being facilitated by shear
    associated with a belt of enhanced cyclonic/westerly deep-layer flow
    across this area, around the southern periphery of the Great Lakes
    mid-level cyclone.

    Given that the favorable environment extends to the coast, it
    appears that storms -- and associated/local severe risk -- will
    likely continue over the next several hours. As such, new WW
    issuance is likely to be required to cover areas east (eastern North
    Carolina) and south (parts of South Carolina) of the existing watch.

    Additionally, with WW 394 slated for expiration at 27/03Z, potential
    lingering risk across this portion of North Carolina could require
    temporal extension of the WW across some of the currently included
    counties.

    ..Goss.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_OqP6EZS4FlFUcMS7iquLV3BXPHbfYZIFfZF8pSRxm9UET_Rbj8ukQC2T4wbfJJLxa5dGxHfG= HvrUJWv2fCPmznmbQA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34998191 36038030 36577884 36577553 35337529 33827755
    33398010 34008194 34998191=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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