1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 20:55:22 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262055=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-262230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeast/coastal
    GA...coastal/central SC...and far southern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262055Z - 262230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for signs of increasing
    thunderstorm coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently formed in far
    southeast/coastal GA in a weak low-level confluence regime, with
    other towering cu also developing in recent visible satellite
    imagery. Around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into coastal/central SC and far southern NC, with a very moist low-level
    airmass in place. Weak surface winds gradually increase through the
    boundary layer to around 30 kt around 2-3 km AGL based on recent
    VWPs from KCLX/KLTX. This region is on the southern fringe of
    enhanced mid-level westerly winds associated with an upper
    trough/low centered over the Great Lakes. Even so, around 25-35 kt
    of effective bulk shear should foster some organization with any
    convection that can form and be sustained. If robust convection can
    develop, a mix of multicells and marginal supercells, with an
    associated hail/damaging wind threat, appear possible.
    High-resolution guidance shows varying solutions regarding the
    number of thunderstorms which may develop across this area. Trends
    will be monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm
    coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ixVkKbn0CXEJCDYnD3-LFEf99VGMl39FE_WFPzVJIraGvWZhEkmE0jgMiePBxYqmfaHwkPwF= oiVSMG_mb5fKd854Y0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32688195 33518119 34347924 33877852 33097916 32028086
    32688195=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)