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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1287

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 20:31:22 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262030=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1287
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central PA...MD...DC...the
    eastern WV Panhandle...and VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...392...393...

    Valid 262030Z - 262200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391, 392,
    393 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move eastward this afternoon and
    evening while posing a threat for severe hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...With around 25-35 kt of mid-level westerly flow
    present, mainly cellular convection has developed this afternoon
    over the higher terrain of south-central PA into MD/VA. Similar
    values of effective bulk shear are aiding updraft organization, with
    some supercells with hail cores noted. Severe hail may be the
    primary severe threat for the next hour or two as this activity
    develops eastward and off the higher terrain. It still seems
    probable that convection will eventually grow upscale and pose more
    of a damaging wind threat as it moves into northern/central VA, DC,
    central MD, and south-central PA over the next couple of hours.
    Continued steepening of low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed
    boundary layer should support this increasing wind threat with
    eastward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 391, 392, and
    393.

    ..Gleason.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64BvflZF7S8ZynXlBqhTINFY8ACGa3TPi5hOicQlnKJRmUAEI7cyzpdBj4pPccQonYieQ_kQb= KSkkFmhbd507PwphZ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37527948 38477907 39407889 40817813 40577660 38577692
    37427788 37527948=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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