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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 19:23:22 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 261923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261922=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-262115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1285
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA and NJ

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...

    Valid 261922Z - 262115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and hail will remain possible with
    thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing at 1920Z across
    eastern PA into northern NJ. This activity may be tied to a 20-25 kt
    southerly low-level jet and related warm advection that is present
    along/near much of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Latest surface
    observations show a weak surface front extends across southern NY
    and far northern NJ. This boundary will probably delineate the
    northern extent of appreciable severe threat in the short term. The
    ongoing convection along/south of this front has access to around
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse rates.
    Damaging winds may occur with the stronger downdrafts. 20-30 kt of
    effective bulk shear should continue to provide modest updraft
    organization, and a marginal supercell or two capable of producing
    hail remains possible. Backed/easterly low-level flow veering to
    south- southwesterly at mid levels in the vicinity of the surface
    boundary is aiding around 100-150 m2/s2 of effective SRH, perhaps
    locally stronger right along the southern NY/northern NJ border.
    Even so, modest low-level winds should tend to limit the tornado
    threat, but a brief tornado could still occur.

    ..Gleason.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Jpo3fGwLYSbg-YU_qy0NhQzT3lvu53447gihT99Zny16tWtOb8rWktd-GC0GwM0_zZcPqJWG= tGFQYp5vv5cCciLxDM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40357647 40997601 41397548 41427500 41337469 41167443
    40987431 40607433 40007496 39917563 40077630 40357647=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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