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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1284

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 18:47:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 261847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261846=20
    CTZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-262115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southern NY into CT...MA...and
    VT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261846Z - 262115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
    spreading northward this afternoon. Watch issuance will probably not
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to
    move northward this afternoon across parts of eastern/southern NY
    and New England. A 17Z special sounding from ALB, modified by
    current surface observations, shows a weakly unstable airmass with
    around 700 J/kg of MLCAPE. Both low-level and deep-layer shear
    remain quite weak however, with a notable drop off in wind speeds
    with height from the surface through 500 mb. With effective bulk
    shear remaining generally 20 kt or less, thunderstorm clusters
    should struggle to become more organized into bowing segments.
    Still, some filtered diurnal heating has occurred, and the observed
    sounding from ALB does show modestly steepened low-level lapse
    rates. This may be sufficient for isolated strong/gusty downdraft
    winds capable of producing mainly sporadic tree damage through the
    rest of the afternoon. Due to the weak shear and instability
    limiting updraft intensity and organization, it appears that watch
    issuance will probably not be needed.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zR6lOLAogJlIHDXJblIqDgt9ELp_InvebdvqjL1Ywk6MKaBv0EeIPktYfdw_IbX5t4tzJf0f= v0Wq4m3qOq370jNAxI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42087415 42897459 43367500 44137508 44677453 44647350
    43747284 41897217 41177307 41067362 42087415=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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