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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1283

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 18:00:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 261800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261759=20
    GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-262030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1283
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia into the
    Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase through the
    afternoon, with a few damaging gusts/instance of large hail the
    primary concerns. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
    issuance is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating of a moist boundary layer is
    supporting surface temperatures to exceed 90 F amid 70+ F dewpoints.
    Mixing of this boundary layer is resulting in 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse
    rates, over 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE, and the development of a
    cumulus field. Convective initiation is already evident along the
    Thomas/Brooks County, GA border, and more storms are expected to
    initiate and intensify through the afternoon. The stronger buoyancy
    will support updrafts intense enough to foster brief damaging
    gust/large hail potential. However, weak winds throughout the
    troposphere will limit vertical shear and associated storm
    organization potential. Therefore, mainly pulse cellular convection
    is expected, and a few multicellular clusters may form. A few
    instances of damaging gusts/large hail may accompany the stronger
    storms. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a
    WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-b6pZNp3pRcI4XKYsRcyCCCZZnG_VyHNTj628KbxQ9L96CYxYG9zZIGaatxYzgGBKyNCymAxs= AxwM3Maal2_E1xuRJE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30278350 30198385 30278416 30708430 31488425 32418396
    33358346 33938298 33828237 33228183 32338152 31538160
    30918194 30668249 30278350=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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