ACUS11 KWNS 261619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261618=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-261715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261618Z - 261715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust may accompany a line of storms before they
move offshore. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The remnants of an MCS continue to propagate
southeastward amid a weakly forced/sheared airmass. A slowly
diminishing cold pool is the forward propagation mechanism. However,
the airmass ahead of the storms has warmed to over 90F amid upper
70s F dewpoints, contributing to a very buoyant boundary layer (i.e.
4000+ j/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE). As such, some of the cells along the
leading line of the diminishing MCS may pulse in intensity to the
point of supporting water loaded downdrafts that may produce a
damaging gust or two. Since the threat for severe gusts should be
very isolated, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9eDBRqljcDBo0S7eKls4mlKoaR_acCPe5aFvBwYicFamk-ueKJxfiWJyoeIIfzZZWJePrTpbb= uDQI9f-HTtyvE2-j9A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30379193 30769122 30919066 30728988 30318934 29918931
29618949 29358998 29369073 29699137 30119187 30379193=20


=3D =3D =3D
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