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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1280

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 13:38:19 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 261338
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261337=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-261500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1280
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0837 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern PA into far southern
    NY and NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261337Z - 261500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for hail and gusty winds winds will likely remain
    quite isolated in the short term. Watch issuance is not anticipated
    in the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Widely spaced thunderstorms have developed this morning
    from parts of northern into eastern PA as modest large-scale ascent
    preceding an upper trough over the Great Lakes begins to overspread
    the Mid-Atlantic region. The airmass across this region is only
    weakly unstable at the moment, with MUCAPE generally 1250 J/kg or
    less. Still, some updraft organization may occur as stronger
    mid-level southwesterly winds associated with the upper trough
    develop eastward. Hail approaching severe limits may be possible
    with the more robust cores given modestly steepened mid-level lapse
    rates, along with occasional strong/gusty winds. Watch issuance is
    not anticipated in the next hour or so (through 15Z/11 AM EDT) due
    to the limited/isolated severe threat in the short term. But, more robust/severe thunderstorm development is still expected later this
    afternoon across this region.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Uc-5Ob9vyPdSExPsyBeGeskfxolL02sSOxcStJAhxYKCNDgEjZgHuj-Lz5GBwBONEyocE-PD= 5VwHjXu6b9EyF_U4YI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41087680 41477904 41997988 42277837 42107621 41647487
    41257439 40677420 40227457 39717535 39867603 40227608
    41087680=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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