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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1276

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 09:21:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260921=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1276
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0421 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Arklatex...Southern AR...Northern
    LA...Central/Southern MS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...390...

    Valid 260921Z - 261045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389, 390
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and damaging gusts will continue
    from the Arklatex across southern AR and northern LA into central MS
    for the next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery continues to show a
    corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms extending from the
    Arklatex region southeastward into central MS. These storms are
    sustained by weak warm-air advection across an outflow, which
    extends from just south of HHW in Choctaw County OK southeastward
    across northern LA and through TVR along the LA/MS border. This
    warm-air advection is modest, but very moist low levels (i.e. 100-mb
    mean mixing ratios over 18 g/kg) are leading to limited convective
    inhibition. This warm-air advection is ongoing beneath steep
    mid-level lapse rates, which is helping promote strong buoyancy. 40
    to 50 kt of effective bulk shear extends across the region as well.

    Environmental conditions suggest storms will likely persist
    throughout this corridor for the next several hours, with additional development still possible across far southeast OK and northeast TX.
    Large hail is possible, particularly with any new development.
    Additionally, damaging gusts are also possible, as strong downdrafts
    penetrate the shallow low-level stability. Given the continued
    severe threat, local watch extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    389 may need to be considered across central MS.

    ..Mosier.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ooIbiIhZ4sJl0pMOgsTfHiHDbkQ55btRex7HG7FnPC_3ZEMRNJ885Ry6Ekm4arpDi_LTorOg= THCb-kY5Z8Npm-7854$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34649535 33749185 32649012 31688918 31218992 31759159
    32099230 32459350 33199507 34649535=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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