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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1271

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 01:50:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260149=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-260315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern and central
    AR...northern/central Mississippi ...far northeast Louisiana and
    eastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...383...385...

    Valid 260149Z - 260315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378, 383,
    385 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of severe storms will continue to pose a
    risk for damaging gusts and hail. New development, while uncertain
    will remain possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley, an organized
    QLCS will continue southeastward this evening with an accompanying
    risk for severe wind gusts and hail. Across the eastern most
    portions of the line, a few embedded bowing structures were noted
    over northern MS. Severe wind gusts (some 70+ mph) will remain
    likely as these storms continue within a broadly unstable and
    moderately sheared warm sector favorable for damaging wind gusts.

    Along the upshear portions of the MCS farther west across central AR
    and far eastern OK, some redevelopment has been noted over the past
    1-2 hours. Driven in part by increasing low-level warm advection at
    the nose of the low-level jet, additional storm initiation appears
    possible this evening. However, it remains unclear exactly how much
    additional convective development is possible given the relatively
    modest ascent on the periphery of the cold pool. Regardless, a large
    reservoir of buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and supercell wind
    profiles would favor more discrete cells potentially capable of
    large to very large hail in addition to damaging wind gusts.

    ..Lyons.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6UfkhP0GE_y_WCQ8cxVkCrBPVnB2aqlyOW5PYjY7KR1fDPSzfAU36H3FqJRO8884Aa7nJyvzj= qM7JtXTfwnG0rPPuEk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32709229 33369348 33899382 34389422 34599503 34759550
    34959561 35229549 35509474 35419377 35339335 35099289
    34629206 34429164 34318996 34538944 34838898 34968867
    34818839 34478836 32858840 32468848 32468872 32468898
    32569094 32599144 32609186 32709229=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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