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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1272

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 02:29:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260229
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260229=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1272
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0929 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...central and southern MS into southwestern AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 260229Z - 260400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms across central MS and southeastern AR may
    continue into southern MS and southwest AL later tonight, with a
    risk for damaging winds and some hail. A new watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions southern MS and southwest AL, a broad
    unstable warm sector remains in place this evening ahead of a large
    MCS over the mid MS Valley. The 00z JAN RAOB is unstable with 2400
    J/kg of MLCAPE and only slight inhibition showing. Though displaced
    south of the stronger vertical shear, some increase in mid-level
    flow will likely support 35-40 kt of effective shear later this
    evening. Upstream, the ArkLaMiss MCS has shown a slow downtrend in
    lightning intensity indicating some possible weakening with the
    onset of nocturnal cooling. Based on current observational and
    hi-res guidance trends, it is unclear how much additional weakening
    will take place before storms exit the southern portions of WW385 in
    the next 2 hours. With the downstream air mass still largely
    unstable, ongoing severe storms may continue to pose a risk for
    damaging wind gusts and some hail into the overnight hours.
    Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance
    this evening.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XU0nRFZwOG6RIvLVGhmiLu57HCs3oLhQiQB6VrNAStDbFkk4hUtnGzsKE1-PEnR1gWUMneVX= 5rY4KiIT0OahPszUgA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32749209 32619021 32548894 32458870 31818805 31238801
    31038850 31118952 31469045 32229190 32749209=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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