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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1269

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 26 00:43:42 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260043=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1269
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0743 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...southern Tennessee into portions of western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 260043Z - 260145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms upstream across northern MS and western TN
    will likely persist with a risk for significant damaging winds and
    hail. A new Watch is likely this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
    well-developed cluster of severe storms moving across portions of
    western TN and northern MS. Ahead of these storms a broad unstable
    warm-sector remains mostly inhibition free across southern TN and
    western AL. Large buoyancy (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE) and increasing
    vertical shear (40 + kt) are likely to support continued maintenance
    of the upstream cluster this evening. Hi-res guidance and reports of
    damage across western TN lend strong credibility to an increasing
    risk for damaging gusts (possibly 75+ mph) and hail into western AL
    and possibly southern TN this evening. The main severe threat should
    remain contained near/west of Interstate 65 to the east of which,
    outflow from previous storms has resulted in some stabilization.
    With the increasing risk for damaging winds and hail a new Severe
    Thunderstorm watch is likely this evening.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9quKJ8APytTgrWBNedpVzbjjzCGx3wP_c9AkIMtmUtQmHFWyATQL-6uFA7U-KGLjRKAV-MOAl= GK8w6Shgxx2d1moJm0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33838846 35358820 35398772 35428731 35248695 34838678
    33938673 33318688 33028715 32828751 32708798 32598846
    33838846=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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