ACUS11 KWNS 252138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252138=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern WY...far northeastern
CO...and the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two is possible this afternoon/early evening. Marginally severe hail and locally severe
gusts are the primary concerns.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway along the
higher terrain in southeastern Wyoming this afternoon -- aided by
low-level upslope flow and eroding MLCINH. While weak large-scale
ascent and marginal buoyancy limit confidence in storm coverage and
longevity, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/straight hodograph) will conditionally support splitting
supercell structures. Isolated strong/severe gusts and marginally
severe hail could accompany any persistent/organized storms that
develop over southeastern WY, far northeastern CO, and the NE
Panhandle through this evening.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!89Xoke5UxG-gpPW3so7L1nEadrNkfMhOvhl3TQTlxGTCwcDVaxj1sQ5o6er8B0BW9U5qwIDwi= B-cYFjPwdkixfs9a4o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40630433 40820494 41400519 42070511 42370463 42330371
41590301 40890317 40630433=20


=3D =3D =3D
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