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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1260

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 25 20:48:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 252048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252047=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1260
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma into northern and
    central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

    Valid 252047Z - 252215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 378, with large hail remaining the primary threat in the short
    term. A severe wind threat may materialize if an MCS can develop.

    DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters and transient supercells
    have been progressing across northern AR over the past couple of
    hours. Though no severe hail reports have been received so far, MRMS
    mosaic radar data depicts MESH streaks with a history of hailstones
    potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter. 20Z mesoanalysis shows
    MLCAPE up to 4500 J/kg preceding the ongoing storms, suggesting that
    the more discrete/semi-discrete updrafts should remain capable of
    producing severe hail, with some stones potentially exceeding 2
    inches in diameter. Should the ongoing storms effectively congeal a
    strong, deep cold pool, then a southeastward propagating bow echo
    with severe winds could still occur. Convective initiation farther
    west of the ongoing storms is uncertain in the short term. However,
    any storms that can develop and mature may produce very large hail
    given a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and deep-layer
    shear.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88YhKqOk0PnnZwE5J53-k2pGhopPhgtN7izLUtyE-Nm99lH551vcJYFZ69q7V30Q2essFX7qJ= VLyzWMI50DXsbpb9Xw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36079567 36119331 36029186 35409130 34569119 34159154
    34309345 34599498 34969588 36079567=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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