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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1255

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 25 17:34:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 251734
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251733=20
    NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern Tennessee into northern
    Alabama and far northwest Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251733Z - 251900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe potential is increasing across portions of the
    Southeast. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a couple
    instances of large hail are also possible. Convective trends are
    being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across portions of
    southern TN into northern AL as convective temperatures (i.e. lower
    90s F) are being reached. Surface temperatures in the lower to mid
    70s F are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy which may
    foster relatively robust, initial updrafts that develop, either in
    the free warm sector, or with a south-southwestward propagating cold
    pool (in middle TN) in association with an approaching MCS. Given
    the lack of stronger shear and upper support, the evolution of
    severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. However, overall
    thinking is that damaging gusts may accompany the southward-moving
    MCS, with damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large
    hail accompanying the more isolated storms ahead of the MCS outflow.
    Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch in the next few hours.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ddbelUOUlQycqyMgf6Mjsq8lRT_JSkztNhE5q-P3gRo4AbdmTgejsMeV30_K529BICwAkX8c= L1fe2xbyVIW-qhzbCc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35008833 35938780 36418687 36448538 36348408 36178309
    35878247 35648250 35188327 34798410 34308519 33878620
    33668692 33648749 34008803 35008833=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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