ACUS11 KWNS 251711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251710=20
MIZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 251710Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for scattered damaging winds, large
hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will likely warrant watch
issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough/low advances eastward across the
Upper Midwest, convection has developed across southeastern WI/far
northeastern IL/far northwestern IN. There is still remnant cirrus
from prior convection extending northward across much of Lower MI,
which has slowed diurnal heating to some extent. But even with this
cloudiness, temperatures have generally reached into the lower to
mid 80s. Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming
northward across this region over the next few hours, which should
further aid in gradual boundary-layer destabilization.

Much of southern Lower MI will remain to the north of a 50+ kt
mid-level jet across the OH Valley. Still, there will probably be
enough deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization, with a
mix of multicells and supercells possible. Large to very large hail
may be the primary severe threat with initially discrete convection.
Upscale growth into a cluster seems probable as convection spreads
eastward across Lower MI this afternoon and early evening.
Severe/damaging winds will become an increasing concern as this mode
transition occurs. Some threat for a tornado or two may also exist
mainly across far southern Lower MI, as low-level shear gradually
increases.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WThCJpHJO9Jx9H4hZpIC3UAJLPqFWtR2mADGOvGzruvIEKNx-XW_nwn-eceSrOahutG0xqjD= 6nEJu56GhU4WXNqY1s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43788668 44328618 44238469 43498461 42788439 42148464
41988617 42228681 43148691 43788668=20


=3D =3D =3D
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