ACUS11 KWNS 242259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242258=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...far eastern North Dakota into north-central and
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...

Valid 242258Z - 250100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371 continues.

SUMMARY...Local tornado risk continues with isolated rotating
storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front extending
from east-central North Dakota east-southeastward across northern
Minnesota, from just north of FAR (Fargo, ND) to near RCX
(Ladysmith, WI). Near and to the north of this boundary, very
favorable low-level shear is indicated -- veering rapidly from
east-southeast at the surface to southerly around 800mb, and
increasing to 30-plus kt.

With 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE along the boundary, isolated
cells have persistently shown low-level rotation, consistent with
the observed low-level shear.

As the upper low over southeastern North Dakota drifts
southeastward, expect a rather narrow zone where the environment
supports brief tornadoes to persist, though diurnal stabilization of
the boundary layer through the evening suggests gradual decrease in
tornado potential to commence later this evening.

..Goss.. 06/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7XC-ZWv-s949096r-P4bkDUIEUT_M6YmD4w1eq-8MxPJnDrmfdt-lCh827hHx_N65UKEFlJXH= TYRAK2r-Xnbo8thgb8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46709714 47499746 47869652 47699504 46259460 46649589
46709714=20


=3D =3D =3D
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