ACUS11 KWNS 242246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242245=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern IA...western IL...far
northeastern MO...and southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 242245Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue to increase in
coverage and intensity across central and eastern IA over the next
hour or two. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely downstream
this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2240 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of central and
eastern IA. Over the last 90 minutes these storms have shown a
general increase in intensity with higher reflectively cores and
several reports of severe hail. Driven primarily by warm advection
over a previous outflow, additional storm development appears likely
over the next couple of hours. In addition to observational trends,
recent HRRR runs suggest the ongoing more robust storms should
persist with some upscale growth into one or more organized clusters
possible this evening across eastern IA and downstream. While the
air mass downstream is not as moist owing to stronger mixing from
very warm surface temperatures, moderate buoyancy and steep
low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for continued maintenance
of strong updrafts. Vertical shear of 40-45 kt will also continue to
support organized storm modes included short line segments and
supercells. Hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threat
though a tornado or two will remain possible with the more discrete
supercells. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed over
portions of western IL, northeastern MO this evening.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4HWKI8DazaX1rjQLxKp4mOfm4gjve7y2tsiEwfvmDOq4rm0vSm1AduS9Tg5rrZ4KjYqXXxrGI= B54b9tA-wclcMwxtPo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42709002 42258942 41538933 39488992 39789137 40039229
40699216 42749168 42949148 42709002=20


=3D =3D =3D
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