• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 24 20:50:49 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 242050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242050=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-242245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern MN and extreme western
    WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242050Z - 242245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist this afternoon.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed across south-central
    MN, in a modest low-level warm advection regime in advance of an
    ejecting upper trough/low over the northern Plains. This
    thunderstorm has had a recent report of a funnel cloud. The eastern
    extent of any appreciable severe threat across southeastern MN will
    likely be constrained by a less unstable airmass into western WI.
    Even so, some threat for severe thunderstorms will probably persist
    this afternoon across parts of southern into eastern MN, as a weakly
    unstable airmass and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear support some
    updraft rotation. Uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of the
    severe threat remains high, but isolated large hail and damaging
    winds may occur with the more intense convection, especially if they
    can maintain supercellular structure. The tornado threat appears a
    bit lower due to marginal low-level shear. But, there may still be
    enough 0-1 km SRH to support a brief tornado. Observational trends
    will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance over the next
    couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YlgJEKlMybWXrmQOVcPe8L0KtgEKr3a3YOcBpTpjEkQI_RYEIhmSubgS-p7t1cq5rE2BS1qI= qGuP9lFPuSJVgl-UY4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 43879430 45029375 45269313 44929251 44469254 43679289
    43549367 43649419 43879430=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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