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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1238

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 24 09:38:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 240937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240937=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-241100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1238
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

    Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Far Northeast NE...Far Northwest
    IA...Far Southwest MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...368...369...

    Valid 240937Z - 241100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366, 368,
    369 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are expected to persist for the next hour
    or so before the line then begins weakening as it moves into
    southwest MN.

    DISCUSSION...Forward progression of the northern portion of the
    convective line moving across southeast SD and eastern NE has
    trended a bit more northeastward over the past hour or so. This
    shift has likely occurred into response to the strengthening
    mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough moving across NE
    and SD. This shift towards more northeasterly motion aligns that
    portion of the line more favorably to the deep-layer flow. Recent
    velocity data from KFSD shows stronger inbounds along the leading
    edge approaching from the southwest. Damaging gusts are possible as
    this line continues northeastward through far southeast SD and far
    northwest IA into far southwest MN over the next hour.=20

    Instability drops off quickly with northeastward extent into
    southwest MN, where cooler temperatures, less low-level moisture,
    and modest mid-level lapse rates are present. Consequently, the line
    is expected to weaken as it moves into this less buoyant
    environment, likely precluding the need for a downstream watch over
    southwest MN.

    ..Mosier.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ptB6tGKMwX0tpBcpGNPpV2UznIeriFZhTTX8j5zg8V-HFR9bUG7B6ae_Xcqt4Gwa9o3FNdNH= fVlvUmPdRIIRKRnD9s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...

    LAT...LON 42989708 43279729 44069732 44359689 44309606 43919534
    42819534 42449677 42989708=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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