ACUS11 KWNS 240205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240205=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...western North Texas and the Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240205Z - 240330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are increasing in coverage across eastern portions
of the Texas South Plains, within southeastern portions of WW 353.=20
A new/downstream watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an expansion of convection across
eastern parts of the South Plains region of Texas, with an axis of
3000 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE that extends eastward to the
western edge of the DFW Metroplex. Within this zone,
east-southeasterly surface winds veer rapidly to southwesterly
through the lowest couple of km. With flow aloft from the
northwest, the setup overall seems favorable for an
east-southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster of storms. This
evolution is indicated by several different CAM runs, including the
ARW-based runs, 4km NAM, and the RRFS. Given potential for hail and
damaging wind gusts suggested by the background environment, we will
continue to monitor this area for possible WW issuance downstream of
WW 353, in the next hour or so.

..Goss/Thompson.. 06/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__PTo0lBmH1FR2CaEYjCAd0F8dllJhgwNxaWmMRLLYiiKiL-EeozOlfSi4J44wSvgUJzUFrzg= p60xW644y7YNEEYsQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32570005 33250037 34160006 34299943 34039818 32089717
31819939 32570005=20


=3D =3D =3D
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