ACUS11 KWNS 240151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240151=20
NEZ000-COZ000-240245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023
Areas affected...portions of far northeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 240151Z - 240245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and damaging winds should
persist for a few hours before moving into NE.
DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms developing in portions of northeastern CO. South of
the primary mid-level ascent, convection has struggled to deepen
most of the day, but has recently intensified. Broad upslope flow
with surface dewpoints in the low 60s F is supporting 2000-2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE ahead of the developing storms. 45-55 kt of deep-layer
shear from area VADs is supportive of supercells. Given the
favorable mode and moderate buoyancy, isolated large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be likely if storms are able to continue
maturing. Hi-res guidance does suggests these storms may continue to
pose an isolated severe risk for a few more hours before moving into
southern NE. Given the isolated storm coverage and some uncertainty
on the longevity of the severe threat, a watch is unlikely though
convective trends will be monitored.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/24/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lOMs90jeNp3FqY4IH6BxRPNNGcqEDS6lfEKn67vccspicjYzhbVz4VcdVkT1V2r6-sfN0L6p= 2KiSQEP3pnn9minEtk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40750421 40990399 41100312 41150224 41060200 40750194
40430199 40320287 40290340 40270394 40330444 40660429
40750421=20
=3D =3D =3D
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